Month: November 2013

Operators are selling more smartphones than any other device category. Around 55% of all mobile phones sold worldwide in Q3 2013 were smartphones. The number of mobile broadband subscriptions is expected to pass 2 billion in 2013, having grown 40% over the past year, and this figure may quadruple by 2019. The increasing number of smartphone subscriptions, which is expected to triple by 2019, is the main driver for mobile data growth that is expected to increase 10x over the same period.

The vast majority of mobile broadband users are served on HSPA networks, 532 of them being commercially launched in 203 countries (GSA – October 2013). LTE is also a mainstream technology. To handle future growth, operators are investing in LTE because of its higher spectral efficiency, improved performance, capacity, and operational efficiencies to ensure the best user experience. 225 LTE networks are commercially launched. Smartphones are now the largest LTE device category. LTE smartphone users generate more data traffic than users on older systems. The number of LTE subscriptions is set to accelerate from 150 million today to 2.6 billion by 2019 (Ericsson Mobility Report – November 2013).

Radio spectrum is the lifeblood of the mobile communications industry. Bands must be internationally harmonized to ensure the greatest economies of scale can develop, especially for user devices. Finding spectrum to satisfy the growing demand for mobile data is getting more difficult, especially in the right combination of low and high frequency bands to enable nationwide coverage serving both dense urban and the rural areas. New spectrum such as 2.6 GHz (3GPP band 7) for LTE systems is best for capacity in cities and has the biggest devices ecosystem. However most operators focus on geographical coverage initially, for which lower bands are more useful. A technology neutrality policy has increasingly been adopted by regulators, meaning spectrum that was originally assigned for e.g. GSM (900 MHz, 1800 MHz) can be used for LTE. 1800 MHz has become the most widely used band for LTE deployments. Allocations arising as part of the digital dividend from the switch by TV broadcasters from analogue to digital transmissions have created regional fragmentation, with North America adopting 700 MHz (e.g. bands 12-14 and 17) and EMEA allocated spectrum in 800 MHz (band 20). LTE device manufacturers, faced with over 40 frequency bands for which LTE has been standardized, would appreciate less complexity in this area to enable them to produce terminals with the largest economies of scale, and to enable roaming.

Asia needs to decide on its key LTE bands. The APT700 band plan (703 – 803 MHz) looks to be the most promising way forward for regional and global harmonization, having secured backing from regulators in several Asian, Latin American, African and Middle East countries. The FDD configuration (2x 45 MHz plus 10 MHz guardband) has attracted most support and is standardized by 3GPP as band 28. APT700 spectrum has been awarded to mobile operators in Australia and New Zealand. The lower duplexer (703-733 / 758-788 MHz) could be used in Europe and is proposed for Region 1 for alignment with APT700.

This will be the focus of the panel on The Impact of Spectrum Choices on Device Availability I am moderating next week at ITU Telecom World 2013 in Bangkok. I will ask the panel for their views on this, and how firm industry commitment to APT700 could help to deliver low-cost LTE user devices, extend the geographical reach of mobile broadband services, thus potentially close the digital divide, assist roaming, uncover conflicts, challenges and needed actions, and attempt to determine the likely timescale for wide scale commercialisation.

It promises to be a very interesting session.

Nigeria is all set to bring a top delegation to ITU Telecom World, held in Bangkok from November 19 – 22, 2013. Our mission there is to unfold the final phase of the country’s readiness to introduce competition into the broadband sector of the telecommunications industry and also place on the table incentives from the government to support investors – local and international – who will be coming into the sector.

Also, the wife of the President, Dame Patience Jonathan, who is Champion, ITU Child Online Protection, will be the special guest of the ITU as she features in a number of ITU programmes and also sets aside time to play special matriarchal roles at Nigerian events.

In the Nigerian team are the Minister of Communication Technology, Mrs Omobola Johnson, Minister of Trade and Investment, Dr Olusegun Aganga and the Executive Vice Chairman of the Nigerian Communications Commission, Dr Eugene Juwah.

The theme the country is taking to ITU Telecom World is: e-Novation, Digital Economic Transformation. In very high profile events like the Leaders Lunch, Nigeria Day and the opening of the Nigerian Pavilion, the President, represented by Mrs Johnson, will have milestone opportunities to address the international community and discuss the contents of Nigeria’s National Broadband Plan 2013 – 2018 which sits at the heart of his administration’s transformation agenda.

Nigeria will enjoy a special spotlight on November 20, 2013 as Dr Aganga discusses investment opportunities in Nigeria and also tell some success stories the country has recorded in recent times.

Chief Regulator of the telecommunications industry, Dr Juwah, while appraising the exponential growth of the sector which has recorded over $25bn dollars worth of investment in a little over a decade, explains that the country has more capacity for growth, adding that details of opportunities, broadband roadmap and incentives by the Nigerian government will be unfolded in Bangkok.

 

The history of technology is one of efficiency and control. Technologies are the art and skill of making tools, techniques, systems and methods to solve a problem.

Technologies are the results of human dreaming of a better world.

Technological innovations are also a deflation game. It’s when a technology becomes cheap enough, either by means of its build or because demand makes its supply possible, that it starts its reach.

Mobile technologies are thus a natural evolution of computing power, miniaturization and falling prices.

The history of technology is also one of convenience and empowerment. Money gave us convenience: exchange goods and services without the headache of, say, comparing poultry to milk. Printing offered empowerment: the diffusion of decentralized knowledge.

Tools like the washing machine freed time for us to focus elsewhere. The VHS tape offered the same: controlling time.

Controlling our destiny.

Though it won’t wash your clothes, mobile has become your address book, your calendar, your camera, your TV, your library.

In other words, your social network, your assistant, your memories, your source of entertainment and knowledge.

The history of technology is finally one of disappearance. Disappearance of obsolete technologies, but also, disappearance of existing technologies: how often do you look at your washing machine with wonderment (besides when you have to figure out how to change the clock, that is)?

Mobile technologies will see the same fate. They will disappear in the background. They will be all around us. When you hear words like “the cloud” or “internet of things”, what you’re hearing is that disappearance.

As 5 billion smartphones will land in pockets in the next to three years. As the biggest growth will be seen in emerging countries. As more than a billion women will enter the workforce in the next 10 years, just imagine how transformative mobile technologies are.

The history of technology is one of enablement. The tipping point of truly allowing individuals all around the world to take control of their lives is coming.

There will be resistance, inertia, the age-old battle of the ancient versus the new. But I believe that an emerging generation is arriving, with emerging values enhanced by those emerging technologies. A generation that disrupts the centralized power of knowledge, reach and diffusion. New marketplaces, new consumption models, new business designs will be emerging.

Mobile is the biggest human opportunity of both convenience and empowerment. The biggest opportunity to control our own destiny.

Whilst it might simply be the result of the history of technology, it’s a dream worth witnessing.

I’ve gathered a group of fascinating individuals to share their stance on the mobile disruption: Benedict Evans, Robbie Hills and Oscar Veronese. Join us at ITU Telecom World in Bangkok.

Read the first part of this article here.

As I’m gearing up for ITU Telecom World 2013 in Bangkok, I’m reminded of what a difference a few years make.

In 1999, I was in a start-up enabling content delivery through the mobile web. We had the future at our fingertips. In hindsight, little did we understand what would happen in the following years.

Even though 1999 was a turning point in mobile penetration—one handset was sold every four seconds in the UK—there were “only” 300 million mobile phone subscribers. And almost not a single one of them was going online (yes, the start-up failed).

Mobile hadn’t met the internet yet.

In 2008, I was residing in Tokyo, I was living in the future. Japanese carriers had standardized so many features unavailable for the rest of us that it truly felt like science-fiction. Some of the behaviours we dreamt about in our little start-up were happening in front of my own eyes.

Mobile hadn’t truly met apps yet.

“This is the year of mobile” has been muttered in every major ICT event of the past decade. Like a teenager in need of constant reassurance.

It’s not needed anymore. Mobile is a given.

WAP, monochrome screen and paltry speeds are signs of a bygone era. Japanese handset manufacturers have abandoned ship one after the other. The major players of 1999, Nokia or Motorola, have lost their shine. BlackBerry, that had released its first email pager that year, is suffering harshly.

It’s a tectonic shift. Mobility has taken over the world, using whichever metric you want to use. It’s the biggest platform shift of the past 50 years.

The mobile market is, though, not fully defined yet. Mobile web, apps, stores, all still feel embryonic, no matter how big those are. How we communicate, engage, learn, reach and diffuse knowledge over mobile is not truly set.

The land grab is in full force. Wave after wave. Some desktop web players are sent to oblivion. Others, from Google to Facebook, are adapting to a mobile world. Mobile-only players like LINE or WeChat are emerging fast. Just imagine: What’s App already sees more pictures shared daily than Facebook.

The change is happening fast.

Twitter, which just went public, was born right in the middle of that shift, with its 140 characters limitation borne out of the desire to communicate over SMS. But the most successful standardized method of mobile communication is threatened itself: What’s App alone sees 14 billion messages exchanged daily.

The change is happening extremely fast.

Where does that leave the telcos? They’re undoubtedly an integral part of the revolution, acting as gatekeepers—subsidies, data coverage and pricing are defining growth—, but their role has changed too, whether you benchmark it against 1999 or 2008.

Mobile technologies are changing the world.

In our pockets, we have much more computing power than a desktop PC of 2008. More computing power that the entire world in 1950. Can you imagine the next 15 years?

I’ve gathered a group of fascinating individuals to share their views on the mobile disruption: Benedict Evans, Robbie Hills and Oscar Veronese. Join us at ITU Telecom World in Bangkok.

Paul Papadimitriou, Innovation Consultant, Digital Intelligence – Interview

Cybersecurity is a theme that requires immediate attention. Societies and nation states are moving towards a level of digital dependence in which trust plays a critical role. Without this core element, we are enabling the continued emergence of a dark world of unrestrained cyber threats and attacks that threaten to subvert the current success of our digital economies.

As an all-encompassing discipline, cybersecurity calls for the active participation of a multi-stakeholder society. Academia, governments, commercial entities, international organizations, and citizens all have a role to play in securing the digital future. The idea that cybersecurity is the remit of the technology professional is unacceptable. We are living in an era where cybersecurity is everybody’s business. Comprehensive security needs to include elements of pre-emptive, defensive, responsive, and offensive measures. But it is not just about technology – many of these elements require training and education, information governance, regulation, strategies, policies, awareness raising, information sharing and cooperation, among many other efforts.

With the advent of machine-to-machine communications, big data, smart cities and connected people, it would be a costly oversight to underestimate the importance that cybersecurity will play for driving next-generation technologies. To be able to take full advantage of the opportunities for economic development offered by information and communication technologies, trust has to be a key element of that technological evolution.

Nation states, educational institutions, and private sector players have a crucial part to play in enabling the implementation of cybersecurity capabilities. The biggest hurdle to overcome is setting down a viable strategy that can fulfil this purpose. This means understanding the vulnerabilities and designing achievable objectives that can be successfully applied in the short and long term. Benchmarking can help to align policies against a desirable goal, and provide participants a useful starting point for building cybersecurity capabilities.

For this reason the Global Cybersecurity Index (GCI) aims to provide guidance on the levels of national cybersecurity development in order to enable countries to drive forward their own domestic strategies. The GCI aims to take a broad look at cybersecurity, with five main elements underpinning the framework: legal measures, technical measures, organizational measures, capacity building, and cooperation. The ultimate goal is to help foster a global culture of cybersecurity and its integration at the core of information and communication technologies, and these five pillars serve as the baseline against which such a culture can be achieved.

For more information about the Global Cybersecurity Index, visit us at the Cybersecurity Pavilion at ITU Telecom World 2013 – or join us for the debate on  Building Cybersecurity Capabilities in the Developing World, on the showfloor at ITU Telecom World 2013 on Tuesday 19 November.

 

It is not a secret that website security is essential for all types of organizations.

Member states and organizations of all sizes are increasingly challenged to adopt new technologies such as cloud computing, virtualization and IT outsourcing. To complicate this challenge, organizations face increasingly targeted and sophisticated attacks. Attackers now range from organized crime rings to advanced nation-states and are highly organized, skilled, and motivated. Despite the prevalence of firewalls, IPS, anti-virus and other security technologies, many businesses continue to fall victim to these attacks due to unintentional configuration errors. As a result, organizations are beginning to recognize the importance of human experience and analysis in a best-of-breed security architecture.

Ethical hacking companies offer tremendous value in their ability to share their advanced security knowledge and expertise with customers. This service enables organizations to adjust their security technologies, train their staff, and enact security practices that better protect critical systems and sensitive data. Ethical hacking services provide customers with objective and real-world assessments of  security weaknesses, vulnerability, risk, and remediation options. As a result, ethical hacking is rapidly gaining attention as an essential security practice that should be performed on a regular basis.

The fact that today theft of sensitive data is at greater risk than ever and web security is the most overlooked aspect of securing sensitive data.  According to DataBreaches.net and IdTheftCentre in 2013, hackers have infiltrated database aggregators like  Washington State court system, Yahoo, OVH, Central Hudson Gas & Electric, Nintendo, National White Collar Crime Center, as well as Adobe’s recent security breach and the resulting theft of personal data from over 38 million users, serves to demonstrate that even the giants of the technology world can fall victim to cyber threats.

We think  ITU Telecom World 2013 is the best platform for innovation showcasing and networking with the global ICT community team and we are proud to be a part of this community and be able to share knowledge and experience in the field of Ethical Hacking.

To find out more on how to make your organization more secure, and on ImmuniWeb – one of the tools to be used by ITU for assessing security of governments’ websites as part of a project to assist Least Developed Countries to secure Critical National Infrastructures (CNI), join us at the Cybersecurity Pavilion on the showfloor at ITU Telecom World.

We are under a growing wave of cybersecurity attacks. This is putting the private sector, public sector and government bodies under increasing pressure to establish solutions for cybersecurity and investigations. In recognition and in response to this, during the 2011 World Summit for Information Society the United Nations put in place a dedicated arm within ITU, ITU IMPACT,  to deal with cybersecurity across all 193 member states.

Most member states face the same problem: the proliferation of Internet access and web-enabled devices is leading to an increase in the volume and sophistication of cybercrime. Yet the reality is that most cybercrime response forces are ill-equipped in terms of forensic staff and investigative technologies to deal with the nature, volume and velocity of these cases, leading to bottlenecks and huge backlogs.

The recent 2013 DBIR Verizon Report, which analysed over 47,000 security incidents globally, further confirmed that geographic borders are no protection against cyber-attacks. Data breaches from 27 countries were analysed as part of the report. The results demonstrated that the majority of financially motivated incidents originated in the US or Eastern Europe and espionage cases predominately originated in East Asia. The message is clear: cyber-attacks cross borders. It follows that a cross-border strategy and approach is essential.  The ITU, with its mandate to build capacity and set the global cybersecurity agenda, is uniquely placed to facilitate a strong, joined-up global response.

As partners of the Cybersecurity Pavilion at ITU Telecom World 2013, our aim is to enable this response and we look forward to seeing you in Bangkok.  Visit Nuix at the Cybersecurity Pavilion (G2) to find out more – or join us for the debate on Building Cybersecurity Capabilities in the Developing World on the showfloor at ITU Telecom World 2013 on Tuesday 19 November.

“Stupidity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.”

–Albert Einstein

Einstein’s often-quoted observation is a good reminder for how the industry should not address “rural broadband.” The last five years have seen a new wave of activities that work to “bridge the digital divide” and enable rural broadband. Yet we see the same mistakes from the past happening in many countries, even countries that should be setting the example for the rest of the world. For example, accusations are reported in the UK media that the UK government favours the “incumbent” as a means to expand broadband coverage, which has not delivered the desired impact.

This policy aspiration vs. policy impact is a recurring theme. How different is our current conversation today about rural broadband to the ones we had about bridging the digital divide? How are the conversations today different from the dialogue before and after the 1982 Maitland Commission Report?

The key difference in today’s conversation is that we have moved from discussing “why” we should bridge the divide to discussing “how” we should bridge the divide. The question however remains about “what” do we use to bridge the divide? What approach is the most appropriate and have the biggest impact? Thesewill be some of the opening questions of the panel debate on “Delivering Broadband to Rural Areas” at ITU Telecom World 2013.

Meanwhile, we need to ask “what is rural broadband”? In many emerging markets 256kbps is already broadband, while in many developed countries, broadband is expected to be anywhere between 10Mbps to 1Gbps. Does rural include sub-urban areas or only remote areas which are usually scarcely populated? The definition does impact the debate about regulations and technologies. Are we talking about bringing fibre or LTE to rural homes, should the government fund this? If so, how should it be funded, and last but not least should it be best addressed in a technology and business model agnostic way?

What is key to keep in mind is that in rural areas, especially in emerging markets, the cost of acquisition and maintenance of a rural customer is very high, leaving very low or little profit margins. Universal service funds therefore have not been able to solve the universal service problem. It is time for a new conversation. It is time for BUSINESS UNUSUAL.

For example, it is often easier and cheaper for grassroots entrepreneurs to bring rural broadband to rural communities and there are many success stories around the world to showcase this. However, regulators may need to intervene to encourage telcos to enter into business arrangements with small rural providers, to provide policy exemptions enabling other smaller players to become “telecom operators” in rural areas and even give preference for any universal service funding to smaller operators, wherever possible. It is actually a win-win for the telecom operator as they can now reach rural customers but deal with the small provider as one customer and hence get a return without the headache of managing each rural customer. This is not unlike a household “offering” bandwidth it buys to the people in the house and buying more bandwidth if there are more people or bandwidth demands to be serviced.

Another aspect of an unusual business model involves tools to bridge the energy divide and the digital divide jointly. In many rural areas, you cannot bridge the digital divide without bridging the energy divide. Approximately 1.4 billion people live without access to electricity and about 1.6 billion without access to telecommunications, and so in many ways the link is very obvious. For telcos, the energy line item for rural telecom cost ranges anywhere from 35% to 75% of OPEX making rural broadband even more unprofitable. The use of energy efficient-technologies and the use of alternative sources of energy such as solar, wind, battery backup and other hybrid solutions are now proving to make better business sense. Yet many telcos and tower companies don’t feel it is their core competency to manage power. In India and Indonesia, there is a rising number of energy services companies offering rural electricity, where the telecom operator, tower company or grassroots telecom entrepreneur is the anchor tenant. More countries should consider policies to encourage this new business model, which will support the spread of broadband as well as renewable energy. In fact, many investors today believe that telecom can be considered to be the “killer app” for renewable energy (telecom needs reliable 24/7 energy and the energy provider gets a consistent anchor tenant).

Ultimately, the key to rural broadband involves innovative technologies, innovative regulations/policies and innovative financing/business models. It is indeed time for BUSINESS UNUSUAL if we are ever to truly bridge the broadband digital divide, let alone just the narrowband digital divide. Policy makers should recognize that they cannot bridge the digital divide without also addressing the energy divide when it comes to rural broadband in emerging markets. Hence policies and funding that favour energy efficient-technologies and/or solutions that run on green energy, and also grassroots entrepreneurs to thrive through win-win relationships with telcos, will help effectively to bring rural broadband for the prosperity of all.

From an innovation perspective, I have always been convinced that “the language we use defines the horizons of our imagination” and so it struck a chord with me when I read in a recent ITU document that “voice calls are no longer the preferred communication mechanism between people”.

This phraseology implies peril for the telecoms industry and a golden opportunity for the internet world. Voice is, however, still the preferred mechanism of human communication but voice calls via a fixed or mobile telephone system are now not the only option available.

This glass half full, myopic misperception leads me to suggest that the business models of telcos are overly focused on the delivery of “coms”. While this has been a highly successful strategy throughout the 20^th century, it is rapidly running out of steam as the internet world and telecoms collide to create the new mobile cloud world of today.

Maybe we should learn from Max Frisch (1911-1991), the Swiss author and critic, who said: “We live in an age of reproduction. Most of what makes up our personal picture of the world we have never seen with our own eyes—or rather we have seen it with our own eyes, but not on the spot: our knowledge comes to us from a distance, we are tele-viewers, tele-hearers, tele-knowers”.

So is it time to pivot this focus? Given the colossal change that convergence has forced within a concatenated time frame, the answer should most definitely be “yes”. The challenge for the telecoms industry is to shift its mindset to focus less on the delivery of “coms” and innovatively focus on “tele” – literally meaning “at a distance”.  This demands a focus on innovation that leverages the assets already in place, the layered technology developments of the last 5 years as well as the new ones that are emerging; most importantly, a focus on the evolution of global consumer and business usage needs and patterns. It means combining capabilities and services to “enable engagement over distance”. Now the question to ask is: what is it that tele-consumers and tele-enterprises really need in this 3.0 world?

As an entrepreneur, I have learnt much over the past five years about the concepts and practices of lean startups, and I realize that some of the challenges they face are very often closely aligned to those of the telecoms companies: namely, having to pivot and adopt a change in strategy without changing the vision, as well as creating multiple iterations of minimum viable solutions to solve customers’ real problems; in essence, getting back to what mobile operators were doing naturally in the early days of cellular. This may require smaller out-boarded organizations but, more importantly, a return of the visionary leaders and problem solvers to replace the accountants and managers before they succumb to the same fate that awaits many startups – running out of resources!

So, in conclusion, the ITU World 2013 panel on innovation that I am moderating is about the need for new mindsets and a reevaluation of the telecoms landscape, chiefly because the current map and strategy no longer accurately represent a territory that has been ripped up by the convergence forces of the last five years. I have no doubt that innovation will thrive in the converged industry but the questions still remain: who will the players be and where will this innovation come from?

See Steve’s video on this session  and catch up on the perspectives of many other panel moderators!